Executive summary

Indonesia’s maritime policies have been made within the context of strategic culture, in which two strains, shaped by different interpretations of its geography and strategic history, coexist in tension. One strain is inward-looking, driven by a sense of vulnerability and focused narrowly on Indonesia’s territorial integrity as an archipelagic state and domestic development agenda. The other is outward-looking, driven by Indonesia’s sense of regional entitlement. Indonesia’s cautious approach to fully endorsing the “rules-based order” narrative in the South China Sea and broader Indo-Pacific should be seen within the interplay of these two strains. Indonesia views the “rules-based order” narrative cautiously, as it implies an increased presence of external powers in the region that could potentially undermine Indonesia’s strategic autonomy and regional leadership.

Policy implications

  • While Indonesia’s specific maritime policies are susceptible to changes in domestic politics, its long-term strategic behaviour tends to oscillate between the inward- and outward-looking poles of strategic culture. Any excessive tilt toward one pole tends to trigger self-correction mechanisms.
  • For external powers with stakes in Southeast Asia, like Australia, Indonesia’s strategic culture presents a dilemma. On the one hand, Australia recognises Indonesia’s importance as a gateway to deeper engagement with Asia and a key partner in regional security. On the other hand, the primacy of the U.S. alliance in Australia’s strategic policies means that, at times, Indonesia will be sidelined in Canberra’s broader strategic calculations.
  • Given Indonesia’s geography and growing strategic role, it remains important for Australia to engage with Southeast Asia in a manner that does not undermine Indonesia’s leadership or be perceived as compromising its territorial integrity.

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